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"As William Thompson notes in his article ‘K-Waves, Technological Clustering, and Some of Its Implications’, the Kondratieff waves mean many things to different people. Thompson proposes that we would all benefit from adopting a view that considers these long-term fluctuations as instances of technological clustering.
A DHT is a hash table that partitions the keyspace and distributes the parts across a set of nodes. For any new content added to the network, a hash (k) is calculated and a message is sent to any node participating in the DHT. This message is forwarded from node to node until it reaches the node responsible for k.
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1. "The move away from periodicity to cycle time means defining the long wave asa unique, historically defined set of alternating phases. The level of analysis is thus world history. History is a unique process." - Joshua Goldstein 2. "The following questions are of central importance in the long wave debate: 1) Can long waves be identified in a va...
1. Cryppix: "In the middle of 1920. N. Kondratiev noticed certain recurring patterns in the changes in the economic situation of developed countries, which he called Large cycles, as opposed to small (Kitschin cycles) and medium (Juglar cycles) economic cycles, which were studied before. N. Kondratiev came to the conclusion that Large cycles consis...
1. From the Wikipedia: "Characteristics of the cycle Kondratiev identified three phases in the cycle, namely expansion, stagnation and recession. More common today is the division into four periods with a turning point (collapse) between expansion and stagnation." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave) 2. Joshua Goldstein: A. "Long waves (...
An 'idealized' description of the long wave, by Joshua Goldstein, in chapter 12 of his book, starting p. 258, and based on the illustration 12.1, "Sequence and Timing of Idealized Long Wave", on page 259. Joshua Goldstein: "The sequence of an idealized long wave within cycle time, based on the lagged correlations emerging from chapters 9—11, is dep...
Cycle theories: Writing in the 1920s, Kondratiev proposed to apply the theory to the 19th century: 1. 1790–1849, with a turning point in 1815. 1. 1850–1896, with a turning point in 1873. Kondratiev supposed that in 1896 a new cycle had started. The technological cycles can be labeled as follows: 1. Industrial Revolution (1771) 2. Age of Steam and R...
Leo and Simone Nefiodow: "The third Kondratieff was the first long cycle that was carried by the practical application of scientific knowledge. The discovery of the electro-dynamic principle by Werner von Siemens enabled the conversion of mechanical energy into electrical energy, and the findings on the composition of matter through quantum phys...
Status
Joshua Goldstein: "By around 1980 the debate had coalesced into threeresearch schools (shown by dotted boxes), descended from the approaches of Kondratieff, Trotsky, and Schumpeter, respectively . 1. The "capitalist crisis" school is led by Belgian Trotskyist Ernest Mandel . 1. The capital investment" school is dominated by Jay Forrester and his team of System Dynamics modelers at MIT . 1. The "innovation" school is centered around Gerhard Mensch in West Germany and Christopher Freeman in Sus...
Kondratieff's Capital Investment Theory
Joshua Goldstein: 1. "Kondratieff, a Russian Marxist economist, ran an institute in Moscow in the 1920s concerned with the study of all types of business cycles in the capitalist economies. Kondratieff was not the first to entertain the idea of long-term cycles of about fifty years' duration.11But he was the first to marshal substantial empirical evidence for the idea and spark a sustained debate on the topic. Kondratieff's principal interest in long waves was empirical, not theoretical; inde...
Leon Trotsky's (and Ernest Mandel's) Theory of Capitalist Crisis
Joshua Goldstein: 1. "Trotsky's first work on long waves, in 1921, was done independently and in ignorance of (rather than in response to) either Kondratieff's or J. Van Gelderen's (1913) work. From 1923 through the late 1920s in Moscow, however, Trotsky and Kondratieff engaged in a running debate on long waves. Trotsky's initial idea, which remained central to his approach, characterized long waves as historical periods of accelerated and retarded growth in the development of capitalism (see...
Graph 1: Previous Kondratiev waves:Graph 2: Succession of core cities:2017年12月17日 · Today, with an investment of $300,000, you can develop smart phones under your own brand – simply follow these steps: Bring your design to Shenzhen; find a factory to produce it; sign an order for 10,000 sets of phones at a price of $30 per set.
Description. Julian Kucklich: "If we assume that play is distinct from "ordinary life" (Huizinga), and that it constitutes an "occasion of pure waste" (Caillois), then playbour is the re-entry of ordinary life into play, with a concomitant valorization of play activities.
It makes a huge difference if your cycle time is one day or 60 days. David Skok of Matrix Ventures gave a presentation about that recently, and actually devised a formula to calculate the amount of users you will get after a period of time based on the Virality Coefficient (K) and the Cycle Time (ct)."
The lead sectors of the forthcoming Kondratieff-cycle (K 6) are already taking shape in the ongoing fifth Kondratieff-B-cycle, consisting of medical, pharmaceutical and biotech sectors in combination with IT, robotics, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology.