搜尋結果
- 生育率，即平均一名女性生育的孩子數量，正在下降。 如果這個數字下降到2.1以下，人口的總規模就會開始下降。 1950年時，每個女性一生的平均生育率是4.7個小孩。 而華盛頓大學健康指標評估研究所的研究顯示，全球生育率至2017年已經將近減半至2.4。
www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/science-53416001
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2024年1月16日 · 臺灣正體. 工具. 提示 ：此條目頁的主題不是 各國家和地區出生率列表 。 國家和地區生育率地圖（2020至2025年）。 數據來源：聯合國人口司 [1] 這個條目包含2個不同數據來源的 生育率 列表。 生育率是指理想狀態下婦女育齡期生育的子女總數。 由 中央情報局 的列表 [2] 觀察出，生育率高的國家大多為 最低度開發國家 [3] [4] ，且大多位於 撒哈拉以南非洲 ，生育率低的國家大多為 已開發國家 以及較富裕的 開發中國家 [4] [5] [6] [7] 。 中情局預測 [ 編輯] 聯合國預測 [ 編輯] 本表數據來源於聯合國經濟和社會事務部人口司對2020年到2025年 生育率 的預測（中等估值）。 參考資料 [ 編輯]
生育率是指理想状态下妇女育龄期生育的子女总数。 由 中央情报局 的列表 [2] 觀察出，生育率高的国家大多为 最不发达国家 [3] [4] ，且大多位于 撒哈拉以南非洲 ，生育率低的国家大多为 发达国家 以及较富裕的 发展中国家 [4] [5] [6] [7] 。 中情局预测. 联合国预测. 本表数据来源于联合国经济和社会事务部人口司对2020年到2025年 生育率 的预测（中等估值）。 参考资料. ^ World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations. population.un.org. [2020-12-27]. （原始内容 存档 于2021-04-21）. ^ 各国生育率列表.
- Empowerment of Women
- Women’s Labor Force Participation
- Increasing Well Being and Status of Children
- Increasing Prosperity and Structural Transformation of The Economy
- Culture and Norms
- Religion and Fertility
- Family Planning
- Contraception
- Coercive Policy Interventions
- Fertility Is First Falling with Development – and Then Rising with Development
Women's Education
The level of education in a society – of women in particular – is one of the most important predictors for the number of children families have. Before I am looking at the data and the empirical evidence in the research literature that establishes why increasing education is leading to a declining number of children per woman we should ask why and how exactly women's education is linked to the choice about children. We should look at the theory.
Women's Education – Theory
The choice for having a child is a question of opportunity costs and education changes them Much of the theoretical work in recent decades on how families decide how many children they want rests on the models of the economist Gary Becker.6His framework models the demand for children in the way the demand for other goods in life are modeled, the demand for children is tied to the ‘price’ of a child. Price, in this framework, is thought of as a much broader concept then just the monetary costs...
Additional positive feedbacks of education
These effects of education on the fertility rates – which can amplify the effect on women's opportunity costs – is the topic of the following section. Positive feedback via the health of children There is evidence, which we discuss in our topic page on child mortality, that better education of mothers is having a positive impact on better health and lower mortality of the children. Further below I will review the evidence that lower child mortality in turn leads to a decrease of the total fer...
The increasing labor force participation of women is a second aspect of women's rising empowerment in society and this change too tends to lead to a decline of the number of children that women have. This change is so closely linked to the rising education of women discussed before that it is indeed impossible to separate from that. A substantial p...
Higher child mortality causes higher fertility rates
Rapid population growth has been a temporary phenomenon in countries around the world. Rapid population growth starts when the health of the population improves and the mortality rate in a population decreases while the birth rate stays as high as before. Rapid population growth then comes to an end when after some time the birth rate follows the decline of the mortality rate. The model of the demographic transition formalizes this relationship between mortality, fertility, and population gro...
Declining child labor reduced fertility rates
An aspect emphasized already is that the high number of children in the past is not an accident. Families wanted many children because they needed many children. In the agricultural, poor economies of the past children were contributing to the household productively from a young age on. Child labour was very common as we show in our topic page on child labor. This changed when the economy modernized. Hazan and Berdugo (2002)25document that with technological progress and the structural change...
More education for children made having children more expensive
In today's rich economies children have vastly more education than in the poor agrarian economies of the past. The basic argument for why the increase of education contributed to the decline of fertility rates derives again from the seminal work of Becker (1960) who argued that because of the costs of bringing up a child parents have to make a decision between the number of children they want (quantity) and the resources they want to spend on each child (quality). Limited resource force paren...
The following plot shows the close relation between the income level (measured by GDP per capita) and the total fertility rate. Shown are not just country averages of the fertility rate and income, the visualization is also showing the within-country inequality. Each population is split into 5 quintiles, from the poorest 20% to the richest 20%. Unf...
The change of fertility are a prime example for changing social norms. In many places around the world the practice of having more than 5, 6, 7, or 8 children, which was the norm for millennia, was replaced by the norm of having 2 children or fewer. We have explored socio-economic and technological changes that contributed to the declining rate of ...
Many religious teachings are asking the believers to have a large number of children. The Christian Bible for example teaches to “be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it”.43 This visualization shows the children per woman plotted against the share of children that die in the first 5 years of life. Each country here is colored acco...
Family planning refers to all active efforts to choose the number of children a woman or family wants. While the changes discussed before changed the incentives for having a larger or smaller number of children, family planning is focussed on the decision making and implementation of that decision on the personal level. Family planning involves the...
Women’s empowerment and the increased status of children reduce the number of children that parents want. But a goal of lower fertility is irrelevant if there are no means to achieve it. Methods of contraception give parents the chance to get the actual fertility closer to their desired fertility. Today there is a range of methods of contraception ...
How important was China's one-child policy?
A common claim—and one originated by the Chinese Government—is that China’s one-child policy has prevented approximately 400 million Chinese births. The view of many has been that this policy shaped a population age structure that contributed to economic growth (through the effect of the “demographic dividend”) and even contributed to global efforts to address climate change. But was the policy necessary to drive down fertility? But is it really? The chart shows fertility in China since 1945....
We have already seen that as a country develops – child mortality declines and incomes grow – the fertility declines rapidly. The demographers Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco Billari studied what happens at very high levels of development. To measure development they relied on the Human Development Index– a measure published by the UN...
2024年1月16日 · 維基百科，自由的百科全書. 提示 ：此條目頁的主題不是 各國家和地區出生率列表 。 國家和地區生育率地圖（2020至2025年）。 數據來源：聯合國人口司 [1] 這個條目包含2個不同數據來源的 生育率 列表。 生育率是指理想狀態下婦女育齡期生育的子女總數。 由 中央情報局 的列表 [2] 觀察出，生育率高的國家大多為 最不發達國家 [3] [4] ，且大多位於 撒哈拉以南非洲 ，生育率低的國家大多為 發達國家 以及較富裕的 發展中國家 [4] [5] [6] [7] 。 中情局預測 [ 編輯] 聯合國預測 [ 編輯] 本表數據來源於聯合國經濟和社會事務部人口司對2020年到2025年 生育率 的預測（中等估值）。 參考資料 [ 編輯]
2020年7月16日 · Getty Images. 生育率，即平均一名女性生育的孩子數量，正在下降。 有研究顯示，全球生育率的大幅下跌將肯定會對社會造成「令人咋舌」的衝擊，而全世界遠沒有為此做好充分凖備。 生育率的下降意味著至本世紀末，幾乎每一個國家都可能出現人口萎縮。 包括西班牙和日本在內的23個國家的人口，預計到2100年的時候將會減半。...
全球生育率下降—— 到2100年,只有六个国家的生育率高于更替水平. 过去70 年来,全球总生育率下降超过50% ,从1950 年每名女性生育大约5 个孩子减少到2021 年2.2个孩子。 截止2021 年,超过一半的国家和地区(110/204 )的生育率低于人口更替水平(即每名女性生育2.1个孩子)。 对于韩国和塞尔维亚等地,这一趋势尤其令人担忧,这些国家的每名女性生育的子女数不到1.1个。 但对于撒哈拉以南非洲地区的许多国家来说,生育率仍然很高。 该地区的总生育率几乎是全球平均水平的两倍,2021 年每名女性生育4 个孩子。 乍得的总生育率为7,是世界上最高的。 未来几十年,全球生育率预计将进一步下降。 到2050 年,总生育率将为1.8 左右,到2100 年将为1.6,远低于更替水平。
2100年的世界. 预计世界人口到2030年将达到85亿，之后人口将继续增长，于2050年达到97亿，到2100年达到104亿。 任何预测都存在一定程度的不确定性，最新的人口预测也不例外。 上述人口预测结果是根据中位预测变量得出的，假定仍旧普遍存在大家庭的国家未来生育率会下降，同时妇女平均生育少于两个子女的一些国家未来生育率会略微上升。...
